Thursday, April 15, 2010

Should Mamba & Co. Be Scared of The Durantula?

One of the most popular subjects being written about the NBA today is the sorry state of the Los Angeles Lakers as a team, and Kobe as an individual. This is not without merit. The Lakers have been playing poorly for at least the last three weeks, and Kobe's final three games of the season were statistically disgusting. On top of that, the Lakers limped to the finish line with a flurry of injuries to Andrew Bynum, Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic (not to mention Kobe's nagging finger and knee injuries). All in all, conventional wisdom (and logical thinking) is that the Lakers are not a championship-caliber team at the start of the 2010 NBA Playoffs.

Meanwhile, the OKC Thunder are playing some of the best basketball in the Association and boast newly-crowned scoring champion, rising superstar, MVP candidate and owner of the coolest nickname in years, Kevin Durant (AKA Durantula). A young squad that plays solid defense, rebounds the ball and can depend on a few guys to score crucial buckets, the Thunder are an up-and-coming contender.

As we all know, though, the NBA Playoffs are all about matchups. Matchups that can be exploited over the course of a 7-game series. This is where the Lakers come out ahead. Let's examine:

Point Guard - Derek Fisher vs. Russell Westbrook

Let's get the obvious out of the way first. Derek Fisher has no shot at stopping Russell Westbrook. Westbrook is an exceptional point guard who, despite not being a traditional PG, averaged 8.0 APG this season. He's young, he's fast, he can score and he's got dimes. Derek Fisher, on the other hand, is old, slow and has lost his shooting touch. This matchup is easy to call.
ADVANTAGE = THUNDER

Shooting Guard - Kobe Bryant vs. Thabo Sefalosha

Kobe is the best player in the Western Conference. Thabo is one of the best individual defenders in the NBA, but he is no match for Kobe Bryant, injury or no injury, especially in the playoffs. Case in point: Kobe has averaged 27.0 ppg on 46.3% shooting (including nearly 8 FTM per game) with 5 APG. Thabo's lone claim is that he has forced Black Mamba into 5.3 TO per game. A fine claim, but he is by no means able to shut down KB24.
ADVANTAGE = LAKERS

Small Forward - Ron Artest vs. Kevin Durant

This paragraph is going to look strikingly similar to the previous one. Kevin Durant is one of the best players in the Western Conference. Ron Artest is one of the best individual defenders in the NBA, but he is no match for the Durantula. Case in point: KD has averaged 25.8 ppg on 46.3% shooting (including 6 FTM per game). Artest's lone claim is that he has forced Durant into 4.8 TO per game. A fine claim, but he is by no means able to shut down the Durantula.
ADVANTAGE = THUNDER.

Power Forward - Pau Gasol vs. Jeff Green

This is where the Lakers' advantages start to show. Jeff Green is a gifted rebounder and a great young player, but he is absolutely no match for Pau Gasol. He is giving 3 inches in height to Gasol, not to mention Gasol's all-around skill set. The main gripe against Gasol is his lack of desire to play aggressive inside. Against a guy like Jeff Green, this is not going to be a problem.
ADVANTAGE = LAKERS

Center - Andrew Bynum vs. Nenad Krstic

First of all, indications are that Bynum will return in time for Game 1 on Sunday. If he does, this is another area where the Lakers have a clearly massive advantage. I'm not even going to give Nenad the honor of discussing this "matchup".
ADVANTAGE = LAKERS

Bench

This one is close. The Thunder boast James Harden, Eric Maynor and a solid but unspectacular Nick Collison on the bench. A very solid group with zero playoff experience. The Lakers' much-maligned bench consists of Lamar Odom, Jordan Farmar and Luke Walton (if healthy). When the Candyman (Lamar) is on, he's better than Harden/Maynor/Collison combined. When he's off, Harden could outperform him. Farmar and Walton have both been hurt, but I still have to give the advantage to the Lakers here.
ADVANTAGE = LAKERS

Coaching Staff

While Scotty Brooks should absolutely win Coach of the Year, Phil Jackson has ten rings.
ADVANTAGE = LAKERS

Overall, while the Thunder have a clear advantage at PG and SF, the Lakers' size should win them this series. There are two major caveats to this: (1) Bynum has to play, and play effectively, in this series, and (2) the Lakers have to actually take advantage of their size. Pau's complaints about not getting enough touches have to be heard. Kobe is not going to win this series for the Lakers. Pau and Bynum (and Odom, to a lesser extent) will. The Thunder in general and Durantula in particular are a great story, but this series should be the end of it.

Prediction: Lakers in 5.

1 comment:

  1. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome our newest writer Bobby!

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