Tuesday, June 1, 2010

We Meet Again

For the 12th time in NBA history, the Lakers and Celtics will meet in the Finals. The Celtics have 17 titles in 21 trips to the Finals. The Lakers have 15 titles in 31 trips. The Celtics are 9-2 against the Lakers in the NBA Finals. The Celtics embarrassed the Lakers in the most recent matchup in 2008, wrapping up the title with a Game 6 blowout. Will 2010 be any different? To answer that, we need to weigh the differences between these teams and this matchup in 2010 with the 2008 versions.

The biggest personnel differences are Glen Davis, Rasheed Wallace, Nate Robinson, Ron Artest and a healthy(ish) Andrew Bynum. For Boston, the personnel changes are basically a wash, as they provide the same skill set as the players they replaced (with the notable exception of 'Sheed's 3-point shooting). For Los Angeles, Ron Artest should help shut down Paul Pierce, and Andrew Bynum's presence will mean a lot, even if he is slowed by his knee injury.

The series itself is different this time around, too, as the Lakers have home court advantage. In the Finals, this is much more important than in all previous rounds because of the 2-3-2 format. It's extremely difficult to win 3 games in a row in the NBA Playoffs. This puts the underdog at a severe disadvantage - instead of winning one game on the road, the Celtics will probably have to win two games on the road as it's very likely they will drop at least one game at home.

The themes of this series will be: Kobe vs. the Celtics' team defense; Rondo vs. the individual defender tasked to guard him (probably Kobe); Ron Artest's defense on Paul Pierce; the battle of the big men and whether Ray Allen can catch fire.

There are a ton of other things to discuss when looking at this matchup, and I'm not going to get into any of them. My status as a Laker fan precludes me from performing a rational, streamlined analysis. I am excited and nervous. This is going to be a great series.

I'm taking Lakers in 6.

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