Boston: Where Baby Steps Happen

Danny Ainge, what the hell are you thinking?

Ubuntu does not mean trade Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson for Jeff Green, dangle Ray Allen repeatedly as trade bait, rile up Rajon Rondo for no good reason, and send Big Baby to a conference competitor. Ubuntu has to do with team chemistry, not sending the binding agents across the league to better teams.

KG was right to yell at Stern about the shortened season, but his talk of chemistry should register with you, too, Danny Ainge.

Because this Celtics team is going where exactly? I like Brandon Bass slightly more than Glen Davis, but the Rickety Three are a year older and will be playing more games in more nights than at any time in their careers. They have a combined 41 years of NBA experience. Are these Celtics deep? Nope. Can Doc Rivers manage to make specialized role players work in case one of the Big Three or Rondo goes down? Maybe. But then where are we?

Danny, are you going to blow this team up? Because you sure aren’t giving them the tools for one last rally for a ring, let alone beat the Heat or Bulls.

Talking Points Memo

I just posted a piece on what to look for in tonight's historic match up over at Beatbots.

Here are some talking points that might not be absolutely beaten like a dead horse by announcers tonight:

What the absence of Kendrick Perkins does for the Lakers
Can Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom take advantage of Rasheed Wallace's limited movement? My guess is yes, yes, yes, and very much so. If the Lakers go inside consistently, this game could be over before the half.

Lamar Odom or Bizarre Odom
Dwyer says it better and with more words, but Lamar Odom simply has to show up tonight at his all-star level best.

Rondo's Availability on Offense
Rondo failed the Celtics in Game 6 partially because the Lakers know he doesn't have a perimeter game. If Rondo gets involved in pick and rolls and pick and pops or even hangs out on the low post after his initial pass, the Lakers simply have to pay attention to him, which makes life much easier for Ray Allen and Paul Pierce (and keeps Kevin Garnett where he should be - near the basket). Watch for Rondo's movement and involvement in screens. If you see it, that's great for the Celtics.

Lakers Clog the Lane
In Game 6, the Lakers absolutely destroyed the Celtics with their defense. Anyone in green who entered the lane found hands reaching in and grabbing the ball. Fisher from Garnett. Everyone from Tony Allen. This worked in part because the Lakers could slough off on Rajon Rondo and/or Tony Allen. If Rondo gets involved, it's tougher.

Benches need improvement
The benches have to play like it's the last game of the season. Why? Because it is. Big Baby needs a double-double for the Celtics. Tony Allen needs to suffocate Kobe. Farmar needs a repeat of Game 6. Shannon Brown can dunk all he wants, but tonight, he's going to have to use his gray matter.

Ray Allen needs to show up
He's done it before, even in this series, but the Celtics struggle mightily when this member of the Big Three doesn't play well. In the conflated id-ego-superego, mind-body-soul mixed triumverate spread across the Big Four, Allen shares the duties of the mind with Rondo but also holds the role of superego. He is the savvy veteran with control and he absolutely cannot disappear tonight. Keep an eye out for a few offensive rebounds from Ray. If he has a couple, this will be a real game rather than another rout by the Lakers.

We Meet Again

For the 12th time in NBA history, the Lakers and Celtics will meet in the Finals. The Celtics have 17 titles in 21 trips to the Finals. The Lakers have 15 titles in 31 trips. The Celtics are 9-2 against the Lakers in the NBA Finals. The Celtics embarrassed the Lakers in the most recent matchup in 2008, wrapping up the title with a Game 6 blowout. Will 2010 be any different? To answer that, we need to weigh the differences between these teams and this matchup in 2010 with the 2008 versions.

The biggest personnel differences are Glen Davis, Rasheed Wallace, Nate Robinson, Ron Artest and a healthy(ish) Andrew Bynum. For Boston, the personnel changes are basically a wash, as they provide the same skill set as the players they replaced (with the notable exception of 'Sheed's 3-point shooting). For Los Angeles, Ron Artest should help shut down Paul Pierce, and Andrew Bynum's presence will mean a lot, even if he is slowed by his knee injury.

The series itself is different this time around, too, as the Lakers have home court advantage. In the Finals, this is much more important than in all previous rounds because of the 2-3-2 format. It's extremely difficult to win 3 games in a row in the NBA Playoffs. This puts the underdog at a severe disadvantage - instead of winning one game on the road, the Celtics will probably have to win two games on the road as it's very likely they will drop at least one game at home.

The themes of this series will be: Kobe vs. the Celtics' team defense; Rondo vs. the individual defender tasked to guard him (probably Kobe); Ron Artest's defense on Paul Pierce; the battle of the big men and whether Ray Allen can catch fire.

There are a ton of other things to discuss when looking at this matchup, and I'm not going to get into any of them. My status as a Laker fan precludes me from performing a rational, streamlined analysis. I am excited and nervous. This is going to be a great series.

I'm taking Lakers in 6.

The NBA's Final Four

We're getting closer. Today I'm going to rank the last four teams remaining in the NBA Playoffs based on the best chance to win it all.

1. Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are playing inspired basketball since the Game 4 blowout in OKC. I did predict that Kobe would go off in the Jazz series, but what I really get a kick out of is how every blog and media outlet is now proclaiming that Kobe is back to his old form. Well, I disagree (somewhat). Kobe obviously played better against the Jazz than against the Thunder, but a large part of that was the game plan and the opposing player guarding him. Thabo Sefalosha is one of the best defensive wing players in the NBA. Wesley Matthews is not. That is the main reason Kobe went off in the Jazz series. It's not because he's all of a sudden "back".

But I digress. The Lakers are operating on all cylinders, and a nice tune-up against a poor defensive team like the Utah Jazz combined with a one-week break to rest Bynum's knee and Kobe's finger/ankle/knee should prove to be invaluable to this team. Add to that the motivation to exorcise Phoenix demons and we should see Los Angeles advance to its third NBA Finals in as many years. They are the favorite to win it all.

1a. Orlando Magic

Of course, the Orlando Magic are absolutely crushing it this postseason. They are 8-0 and have been sitting at home watching the LeBron embarassment (hey LeBron - great players win championships) for nearly a week. Best team defense in the league, best defensive player in the league, a marquee point guard and a shooting guard who can pour it in when he's motivated enough to do so. The Magic are primed and ready to advance to their second NBA Finals in as many years. I just hope nobody sleeps on this team next year like they did this year. The only reason the Magic are #1a and not #1 is because beating Charlotte and Atlanta is not that impressive. They were clearly two of the weakest teams in the weaker conference's playoffs.

3. Boston Celtics

With their dismantling of the Cavaliers, the Celtics showed the world why you can never dismiss a championship team in future playoffs. This team is tough. This team is talented. And this team does not give up. Rondo is having a coming out party and their team defense is doing what it's so good at doing - shutting the other team down completely. Meanwhile, it looks like Paul Pierce is struggling. It will be hard for the Celtics to get past the Magic in the East Finals, but if Pierce can find his groove, it is entirely possible for the Celtics to advance.

4. Los Suns de Phoenix

The chemistry team. Steve Kerr was on the Dan Patrick show this morning and said that he could tell in training camp that this team just likes each other. That's a far cry from the usual distractions and prima donna personalities that the Suns have become known for over the past few years (hello, Amar'e Stoudemire). The resurgence of Grant Hill, the solid play of the Phoenix big men, the scoring of Jason Richardson and the masterful orchestration of the offense by Steve Nash have all combined to get the Suns to the West Finals. Unfortunately they (like almost everyone else) don't have the size to match up with the Lakers. But they do have the personnel to dictate the pace of the game, and they run the pick-and-roll as well as anyone in the league (which is the Lakers' main defensive weakness). If they can get past the Lakers, I could see them matching up well with the Magic and the Celtics. But they have to get there first.

Both of these series are going to be outstanding. I'll take Celtics in 7 and Lakers in 6 for a rematch of the 2008 NBA Finals.

NY, NJ, or CHI?

Some people tell me that The Chosen One is a closer. I have yet to see the evidence.

The question now is, after losing for a second consecutive year before reaching the NBA Finals, despite having the best regular season record, what is LBJ going to do in the offseason?

The popular thinking is that, not being able to win with Cleveland, he's going to take his free agency and get the hell out of there. Only three teams really have the space under their cap to afford him: the NY Knicks, the NJ[Brooklyn] Nets, and the Chicago Bulls.

Safe money is on the Knicks, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that between Jay-Z and the new multibillionaire Russian owner of the Nets, and the promise of a Brooklyn franchise, it may be NJ/Brooklyn at the end of the day.

Thoughts?

Was this a hoax?

What were the Celtics doing during the regular season? A 4 seed should not be giving the best team in the NBA (by record) a lesson in smart play. Boston finished the season 50-32. That's good enough for 6th through 8th in the Western Conference. They have just dominated Cleveland at home for the second time in this series to gain a 3-2 lead. Is this a LeBron collapse? His injury surely has been played up enough. The truth seems to be somewhere along the lines of Boston wants it more and Mike Brown cannot coach.