And The Stage is Set: Round of 16 Preview

The final games of group play have finished, and the elimination rounds of the 2010 World Cup are now set! Spain fought back from their surprise loss to Switzerland with a big 2-1 win over Chile, propelling themselves to the top of Group H and avoiding a Round of 16 matchup against Brazil, who faces Chile instead. Interesting fact, Chile gave up 7 goals to Brazil in their two matches during World Cup qualifying; not exactly the best record you want when facing the #1 team in the world.

How did the various continents do? Well, Europe did worse than last time around, and the rest of the world did better:

Europe - 6 (down from 10 in 2006)
South America - 5
CONCACAF (N. & C. Am., Caribbean) - 2
Asia - 2
Africa - 1
Oceania - 0

And who has the easiest path to the semi-finals, and who has the hardest? Let's look at the brackets (using pre-World Cup FIFA Rankings):

Weakest: #14 USA v. #32 Ghana, #16 Uruguay v. #47 S. Korea
#2 Spain v. #3 Portugal, #31 Paraguay v. #45 Japan
#1 Brazil v. #18 Chile, #4 Netherlands v. #34 Slovakia
Strongest: #6 Germany v. #8 England, #7 Argentina v. #17 Mexico

Things look good for Team USA; they are in the weakest bracket by far, and while Ghana is the strongest team in Africa and Uruguay is the original power team, the Yanks are fully capable of winning their bracket up to the semi-finals if they play the way they did back in the Confederations Cup, where they beat Spain in the semi-finals and went up 2-0 over Brazil in halftime of the finals, only to give up 3 goals in the second half. We may see a rematch of that Confederations Cup finals (held in South Africa last year), as Brazil and the USA are on the same side of the brackets, able to meet up in the semi-final match. But it won't be a cakewalk for Brazil, either; though they are heavily favored to trounce Chile yet again, they haven't looked in top form yet this World Cup (though all signs suggest they're just waiting for the elimination rounds to play their real game, which should blow us all away), and may face European powerhouse Netherlands in the quarterfinals.

On the other side, the toughest trek by far will be where perennial European powerhouses Germany and England face off. Both are playing some of the ugliest football we've ever seen them play, with England finishing second in Group C after being unable to beat Algeria and drawing with the Americans (sort of like the War of 1812). Not only should that first match be a knock-down, drag-out street fight, but the winner of the derby faces red-hot Argentina, who is one of the few teams who look like they're ready to win the whole thing, maybe even more so than Brazil. And don't count out Mexico, which has been playing like a top 10 team and may be the Cinderella story of this World Cup. Whoever comes out of this strongest group will probably face the winner of Iberian neighbors Spain and Portugal. Spain has definitely not looked like the European champions so far, with star Liverpool striker Fernando "El Nino" Torres still scoreless and an apparent inability to convert on strong chances. UEFA Euro 2008 hero David Villa (Valencia) has stepped up, though, and it will be interesting to see whether he continues to be the big finisher for La Roja (who confused me by wearing blue today in their final group match).

Portugal, too, has been lackluster, with the biggest disappointment being the lack of goals from international superstar Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) (especially after the epic Nike ad campaign). In 270 minutes, Ronaldo has hit the back of the net just once, of seven Portuguese goals. If Spain is in top form, we'll see Barca-inspired dominance of possession, meaning fewer chances for Portugal. Ronaldo will have to execute on the opportunities he does have if he hopes to make the Nike ads into a reality.

But here back home, all eyes are just focused right now on USA v. Ghana. By all measures, the USA is favored, but that's not how the World Cup works. Emotions will be running high; Ghana and the US were both in the same group in 2006, and the African Cup Champions nabbed the second slot out of group play behind Italy (remember when Italy used to make it out of group play), with Ghana beating the US 2-1 in the final group play match, sending the Yanks home and dooming Americans to another four years of pretending that the world cares about MLB's World Series. As always, Team USA has a lot to prove to proto-fans at home, and there is never a venue better than the World Cup to teach Americans to love soccer. But the Black Stars will be under a lot of pressure as well; not only are they looking to make another run in the World Cup, they're now the only remaining African team in the first African World Cup in history. It's a lot of pressure from an entire continent, and while the players and coaches claim to welcome it, how they handle it come tomorrow is yet to be seen.

Saturday
Uruguay v. South Korea, 10am EDT, 7am PDT, ESPN
USA v. Ghana, 2:30pm EDT, 11:30am PDT, ABC

Sunday
Germany v. England, 10am EDT, 7am PDT, ESPN
Argentina v. Mexico, 2:30pm EDT, 11:30am PDT, ABC

Monday
Netherlands v. Slovakia, 10am EDT, 7am PDT, ESPN
Brazil v. Chile, 2:30pm EDT, 11:30am PDT, ESPN

Tuesday
Paraguay v. Japan, 10am EDT, 7am PDT, ESPN
Spain v. Portugal, 2:30pm EDT, 11:30am PDT, ESPN

What Today's U.S., England Draws Mean?

In case you weren't actually at the match (Eric), playing hookey from work at 10am Eastern (Beau), or half asleep on your parents' couch at 7am Pacific (me), you may have missed an edge-of-your-seat 90 minutes of USA soccer today, with our Yanks fighting back from a nil-two deficit going into the half to almost pull off a Laker-esque come-from-behind victory. In fact, but for the worst reffing ever, Team USA would now be sitting happy atop the Group C standings. Unfortunately, they suffered from a non-foul called a foul, plus failure to call a penalty kick, resulting in a 2-2 draw, and Slovenia kings of Group C.

Oh yeah, and then England drew 0-0 with Algeria, proving definitively that England (ranked #8 in the world by FIFA) was overrated coming into this World Cup, and that Rooney's Premier League top-striker title fails to translate without a star international supporting cast.

So what does this all mean? Slovenia has 4 points, the U.S. and England each 2, and Algeria 1. The U.S. has its own destiny in its hands; a win means it moves forward with five points, regardless of how England vs. Slovenia plays out. The U.S. also moves forward with a tie if Slovenia and England draw at 0-0 or 1-1 (for any draw higher, the U.S. would have to draw at a goal higher as well to progress; i.e., a 2-2 Eng/Slo draw would require a 1-1 U.S./Alg draw).

This is all because the first World Cup tiebreaker in group play is Goal Differential (goals scored minus goals allowed), and the second tiebreaker is total Goals For. Right now, Slovenia is sitting on a +1 GD, the U.S. and England are at 0, and Algeria is at -1. For Goals For, Slovenia and the U.S. both have 3, the English just one, and Algeria none.

If both the U.S. and England win, they'll both move forward. Who finishes first in the group (thus getting a hypothetically easier draw in the Round of 16) depends on who wins bigger next Wednesday (remember, GD is the first tiebreaker and the U.S. and England are currently even on that front).

Whether it'll be a blessing or a curse to come out of group first is yet to be seen; the winner of Group C plays the Group D runner up, and Germany fell 0-1 to Serbia today, with best-in-Africa Ghana yet to come.