Previewing the Celtics vs. Cavs

Unfortunately, the second round of the NBA Playoffs doesn't start in the same way as the first round - that is, not all of the matchups are set. So rather than prognosticating what the second round matchups will be and providing a single prediction post, I'm going to do this piecemeal.

[First, an aside: My predictions are proving to be pretty good, if I do say so myself. In the West, the Lakers obviously won't win in 5, but San Antonio is up 3-2 and going home for Game 6, Phoenix is up 3-2 despite Brandon Roy coming back (which is amazingly unexpected), and Utah is up 3-1 and could win in 5 instead of the 7 I predicted. In the East, I called Cleveland in 5, Orlando in 4 AND Boston in 5. And Atlanta-Milwaukee is tied at 2-2, so Atlanta could still win in 6. My predictions were certainly better than this guy's, who didn't even make one for Orlando-Charlotte. I guess he got confused.]

OK. The Celtics and the Cavaliers. A matchup of serious Eastern Conference powerhouses. Both great teams and both title contenders. Both won their respective first round series in five games, the Celtics withstanding a willpower game from D-Wade and the Cavaliers withstanding a homecourt pride game from the Bulls.

Obviously, the biggest component of this series is the Celtics' team defense versus LeBron's abilities to run the offense. Within LeBron's control are his own shots and his own penetration. Outside of his control is his teammates' ability to hit the open shots he creates for them. With Jamison, Varejao and Mo Williams, I have confidence. With the others...not so much.

Shaq will be a nonfactor in this series (no surprise, really). Not only is he aging, he's going against a tough-nosed defender with size in Kendrick Perkins. Shaq is the type of player, even in his prime, to shy away from (instead of going after) tough, sizable defenders.

Rebounding will be another big key to this series. Can the Celtics front line outrebound Shaq, Varejao, Jamison and Big Z? If so, and if they can stay out of foul trouble and make sure the rest of the team is able to close out quickly on open shooters, the Celtics have a very good chance of winning this series. If the Cavs can get a solid contribution in points from one of Jamison/Varejao/Williams/West in each game, that should be enough to put them past the Celtics.

This is going to be a great, great series (as long as you like defense and/or watching LeBron James). I'll take Cleveland in 7 due to homecourt advantage.