Thursday, February 9, 2012

12 points, 10 rebounds

There are oft-repeated mantras when it comes to championships in the NBA.
"Defense wins championships."
"LeBron James/Mike D'Antoni's offense/a rabid unicorn hasn't won anything yet."
"You need a Big 3."

Oscar Robertson, 73, the man who averaged a triple-double for an entire season, sat down with Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald and said this of the Heat, "I want LeBron to win. It felt like the whole country was against him last year. But I’ve always said this: To win championships, you need to have a center who can get you 12 points, 10 rebounds. The Heat don’t have that."

Obviously, just a center who gets 12 points and 10 boards isn't going to win a championship, but let's take a look at Big O's argument. First, we look to see if the team had a center who averaged 12/10 in the regular season, then if they had a center who averaged 12/10 in the Playoffs (including the NBA Finals), then whether they had a center who averaged 12/10 in the Finals. Finally, we look to see if, during the Finals, the center grabbed 12 and 10 at some point, because Robertson says "a center who can get you 12 points, 10 rebounds."

Championship TeamRegular SeasonNBA PlayoffsNBA Finals12/10 in Finals
2010-2011 Dallas MavericksNoNoNoYes
2009-2010 Los Angeles Lakers*YesYesYesYes
2008-2009 Los Angeles Lakers*NoYesNoYes
2007-2008 Boston CelticsNoNoNoNo
2006-2007 San Antonio Spurs*YesYesYesYes
2005-2006 Miami HeatNoNoYesYes
2004-2005 San Antonio Spurs*YesYesYesYes
2003-2004 Detroit PistonsNoNoNoYes
2002-2003 San Antonio Spurs*YesYesYesYes
2001-2002 Los Angeles LakersYesYesYesYes
2000-2001 Los Angeles LakersYesYesYesYes
1999-2000 Los Angeles LakersYesYesYesYes
1998-1999 San Antonio SpursYesYesYesYes
1997-1998 Chicago BullsNoNoNoNo
1996-1997 Chicago BullsNoNoNoNo
1995-1996 Chicago BullsNoNoNoNo
1994-1995 Houston RocketsYesYesYesYes
1993-1994 Houston RocketsYesYesNoYes
1992-1993 Chicago BullsNoNoYesYes
1991-1992 Chicago BullsYesNoNoNo
1990-1991 Chicago BullsNoNoNoYes

The 1993-1994 Rockets had two centers, arguably: Hakeem Olajuwon and Otis Thorpe. Both averaged better than 12 and 10 during the regular season. And the 1998-1999 San Antonio Spurs had David Robinson and Tim Duncan (ok, he's sort of a center, I'm being generous to Robertson) average better than 12 and 10 during the regular season and during the Finals against the Knicks.

So, is the Big O right? That depends. Did he mean a center who can get 12 and 10? Did he mean a center who gets 12 and 10 once? Averages it during the season? During playoffs? During the finals? His only resounding support comes from Shaq's Lakers, Hakeem's Rockets, and David Robinson's first championship.

The Heat can win it all. Dallas did it last year without a 12 and 10 guy... unless Chandler's one big game satisfies O's conditions...

But the late 90s Bulls and the recent Celtics team show that Robertson's thesis isn't 100%.

I think Oscar Robertson is wrong. When the Cleveland Cavaliers, featuring a certain aforementioned LeBron James, reached the NBA Finals in 2007, their center, a one Zydrunas Ilgauskas, was averaging above a 12/10 through the playoffs. It wasn't until the Finals that Big Z's production tapered off. In fact, his production tapered off enough that he only averaged 9.7 boards through the entire postseason. His Finals appearance was that bad. Sure, he had one big game, but that wasn't enough to avoid a sweep against the Spurs. The Big O is wrong - you can't just choose an arbitrary stat level as indicative of championship caliber play. I didn't go through the losing teams each year, but I would not be surprised if a few had a true center rocking more than 12 points and 10 boards at least once.

In the end, Robertson's statement is slightly more informed but just as predicive as statements like "the Lakers have never lost at home in the third game following a tremor of 4.2 against a team from Canada."


* = Because Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol play power forward and center, they were included as centers, but doing so hurts Robertson's thesis.

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