Winners, Losers, Whatever

The lockout is over. The schedule is out. And the Nuggets will have to reinvent themselves for the second time this year. And we're almost exactly where we started, minus 149 days of ridiculousness where the average NBA fan* became at least slightly versed in endearingly cute terms like BRI.

In case you're someone who frequently attributes false equivalency for fear of appearing biased, the lockout was caused by general managers radically overpaying players. Sure, NBA players are the highest paid professional athletes, on average. But maybe that is in part because the game itself requires fewer players on the playing field than any other team sport. Given that only 5 men may be on the court for a team at any given time, this allows for the individual contributions of any given player to matter substantially more than in baseball, football, hockey (with its interminable line changes), and soccer. Furthermore, for those of you who feel that the lockout was the players' fault, let it be noted that the last CBA was widely viewed to drastically favor players.

Here's a quick wrap of what the new CBA means for fans, players, teams, and a variety of owners: nothing has changed until 2013. Other than that, here goes:

Fans
For fans who attend games, there will be no positive financial effect and a negative effect on seeing those out-of-town teams some of your neighbors like (those teams with guys like Kobe, Melo, and LeBron). And, given the recent news regarding Chris Paul, the new CBA will not prevent great players in small markets from leaving for Los Angeles or New York. As fans, at least this year, we'll have a better attempt by the league at basketball burnout. Something like seven teams will play five games in six days** - which could mean a team plays at 8 pm on Saturday in Philly and at 1:30 pm on Sunday in DC. I'm sure that will lead to some awesome, fatigue-free ball. The timing for some teams may have a large and strange effect on the season. The Wizards, for example, have a particularly brutal April featuring games on the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 6th. Those back-to-back-to-back games could increase the likelihood of injury, lack of focus, and missed shots. Unfortunately for the Wizards***, if they build playoff momentum and are a bubble team, that April schedule will sink them.

We're fans. We're taken for granted. It's a given. Even when teams "really give back to the fans."**** What the NBA almost did was screw over the casual observer who can talk at length about how Kobe is or isn't the best player in the league yet pays no attention to facts.



Players
Superstars face about a 20% decrease in maximum salary compared to what they would have due to the new rules if they choose to leave their current team. The old rules allowed them to get their max contract and engage in the olde-fashioned sign-and-trade. Now, not so much. Regardless of this financial argument against mobile free agency, general managers retain the right to completely screw themselves over for players thanks to concessions made in the new CBA - for instance, teams have to use up 85% of the salary cap in payroll. Think about the effect on a team like Sacramento: out of the running for a pretty good free agent center (Tyson Chandler or Nene Hilario), but with the ability to overpay Sam Dalembert, oh, Kings fans, I am sorry. I shouldn't have brought it up. You guys will overpay for someone who will take you out of the lottery but not into the playoffs. In other words, the new minimum expenditures rule will force you into overpaying for someone like James Posey for no apparent reason other than to place you firmly in draft hell.



Teams
I've already mentioned that the Kings are going to do something stupid in the short run (and I don't mean moving to that bastion of culture that is Anaheim). They're bound to do so. The Heat, however, will rock this new CBA for as many Eastern Conference Finals as possible, which could mean 4 rings before the new tax provisions finally kick in. Dallas also wins in the short run as do the Lakers and Knicks. Basically, any team that was spending a lot will keep doing so. Had last year's OKC and Memphis teams been dealing with the new CBA, Dirk wouldn't have a ring.

That being said, formalize in your brain, if only for a second, a picture of Tom Thibodeau.

That will do. Now think about how the Bulls lost last year. LeBron covered Rose, right? Now think about Thibodeau's defensive schemes that made Paul Pierce and Carlos Boozer look worthwhile. What do you think Tom Thibodeau woke up thinking about every day for the past 149 days + the days since the end of the Eastern Conference Finals? Look at Tom Thibodeau again. Look. Pretend, for a second, that he has developed a new defensive scheme for the Miami Heat as currently and forever comprised. Pretend, for a second, that Tom Thibodeau hasn't calmly said goodnight to his family and then gone to his garage, donned a mask, grabbed a power tool, and spent the next 17 hours in solace etching his artistic interpretations of this season upon wood, stone, and a few unexpecting pieces of siding. If you're Tom Thibodeau, you have a defense that stops the Heat that you try on the Heat. But you also have an offense that you don't unveil against the Heat until they don't have any ability to adapt. The lockout: where players kinda stayed in shape and Tom Thibodeau made sure his dungeon was ready. Totally creepy.

What Western Conference team is currently built to win it all this year? Not the Mavs given their free agent problems. Definitely not the Lakers. The Thunder? The Grizzlies? If the Grizz re-sign Battier, maaaaybe, but Rudy Gay isn't filling any defensive void. The Thunder? Yes.



Owners
Now: Arison, Buss, Cuban, Reinsdorf, Bennett. Those guys won. Why? Because the new CBA doesn't have any effects on their abilities to win rings. Now ask yourself, which teams were likely to win rings in the next few years anyway? Whoever owns the Heat, Lakers, Mavericks, Bulls, or Thunder. Nothing changed and there is only one small market team there: the Thunder.

Sorry, Spurs fans.



* - I wrote NBA fan, not basketball fan nor basketball viewer.

** - The Wizards are the only team that plays 2 sets of 5 in 6. Brutal, no?

*** - I understand the Wizards would have to make several big moves to be a playoff team this year and that being a playoff (or even borderline playoff) team this year is not necessarily a good thing for the health of the team in the long run.

**** - The Green Bay Packers may be the exception. Amazing lawyer and slightly depressed Sooners fan Jimmy pointed out that after the highly successful Green Bay fan acquisition, the NFL essentially forbid mass fan ownership. If only cities had some fucking balls, right? If we had city-owned teams and a salary cap system, we'd have far more fan support and far more responsible financing of stadiums. Also, I'd be willing to bet that every single league with a cap would have parity.