Wednesday, August 10, 2011

L.A. one step closer to a(nother) NFL stadium. Who will play there?


- The proposed new stadium, Farmers Field, would sit right next door to the Staples Center, and compete against Cowboys Stadium as the premier venue for events such as the Final Four

The L.A. City Council has approved, 12-0, a non-binding agreement to proceed with the demolition/relocation of part of the L.A. Convention Center, to make room for AEG's planned 72,000 seat NFL stadium, which already has sold naming rights to Farmers Insurance, to be dubbed "Farmers Field." The relocation of the Convention Center facility would be funded by $275 million in city bonds; AEG would pay for the new football stadium and two parking garages.
City officials expect the stadium to create more than 14,000 construction jobs and 6,300 permanent jobs while making it possible for the city to renovate its Convention Center at a time of tight budgets. Still, the proposal has drawn sharp questions from residents who live near the stadium site who are worried about the traffic that will pour onto local streets and the 110/10 freeway interchange.
Well, jobs are good, and better the 110/10 interchange, where people are used to madness during big conventions and Lakers games, than at the junction of the 57, 60, and 10, where rival "Los Angeles Football Stadium" is looking to be constructed. An L.A. team should be in L.A., not in Pasadena or Industry.

But who, exactly, will fill this stadium (or the unfortunate City of Industry alternative) with well-heeled celebrities, wannabees, and fans of both? Given that the lockout is over, this autumn will mark the start of the 17th consecutive season the country's second-largest city has gone without an NFL team. Here are the six most often mentioned contenders:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Locals can't watch most home games given the need to blackout the perpetually undersold stadium. Also, the team sucks, with the likelihood of bringing home a Super Bowl trophy in the near future looking pretty bleak. Gotta think this is the best bet, given an average-aged stadium, very poor fan support, and little franchise success.
Metrics:
  • Stadium: b.1997 (avg. NFL stadium age: 17.8yrs), it is the 13th oldest NFL stadium.
  • Fans/Attendance: Bleacher Report calls them "Probably the worst fans in the league", the avg. 2009 attendance - 49,651/game (30/32); 31/32 by stadium capacity %.
  • Franchise Performance: In 22 years, they have won 0 League Championships and 0 Conference Championships; they won Division Championships in '98 and '99.
2. San Diego Chargers - I hate this idea, for the same reason I hate the Raiders coming to L.A. There's no reason that California shouldn't have an NFL team for each major city, and grumbling Angelenos don't want their smaller neighbor's hand-me-downs. Also, this is mostly about stadium issues; no doubt Qualcomm is an old p.o.s., but Supercharger fans are aplenty in "America's Finest City," and this is a team that has been quite good and a perennial contender in recent years. Unfortunately for San Diegans, the Chargers are the next team on the list that will be in search for a new stadium, and there are two in L.A. that plan to be a-callin'.
Metrics:
  • Stadium: b.1967, it is the 5th oldest NFL stadium.
  • Fans/Attendance: avg. 2009 attendance - 67,543 (18/32); 24/32 by stadium capacity %.
  • Franchise Performance: 1 League Championship, 1 Conference Championship, 15 Division Championships, including their last playoff appearance in 2009.

3. Oakland Raiders - The saying goes, "You can't go back again." Clearly that isn't true for the Raiders, who returned to Oakland after winning a Super Bowl and making the playoffs 6 of 12 years in L.A. But as they say, "The Raiders moved to L.A., and back to Oakland. No one in Los Angeles seemed to notice." (at 1:45)

The Raiders have an even older stadium than San Diego, and despite having "the craziest and scariest fans in the league," they also have the lowest attendance in the league, in raw numbers and by capacity filled. They are one of the winning-est franchises on this list, no doubt; they are the only franchise to play in the Super Bowl in four different decades (the other: the Pittsburgh Steelers). But success has little to do with where the Raiders play, apparently, and Al "Just Win" Davis would have no qualms bringing the team back to L.A. or its suburbs, regardless of the collective groan from everyone outside of Raider Nation.
Metrics:
  • Stadium: b.1966, 4th oldest NFL stadium.
  • Fans/Attendance: avg. 2009 attendance - 44,284 (32/32); 32/32 by stadium capacity %.
  • Franchise Performance: 3 League Championships, 4 Conference Championships, 15 Division Championships, including their last playoff appearance in 2002.
4. St. Louis Rams - The "other" former L.A. team, the Rams are a sad tale of early success without long-term fan support. Having won a pre-merger NFL Championship in 1951, six seasons after charging out of Cleveland, the Rams spent a solid 48 years in Southern California, and may have been cemented as "the" L.A. team, but for the notorious 1979 move to Anaheim. Anaheim, as Angelenos will let you know in no vague terms, is in Orange County, not Los Angeles; Orange County is not Los Angeles. Trying to name any team in the O.C. "Los Angeles" is an insult not taking lightly, as vitriol toward the Anaheim Angels goes to show (no, their inaccurate marketing name change will not be used by me). L.A. mostly rejected the Rams for the newcomer, Super Bowl winning, downtown stadium-having Raiders, and the Rams were among the most impacted by the League's new blackout rules, never really getting the attendance they expected at the co-located Angels Stadium. An 11-5 season in 1989 seemed to signal resurgence, but the 49ers utterly destroyed them in the NFC game, sealing their fate and causing Georgia Frontiere to flee with her team to St. Louis in 1995. Despite moving to the Midwest, the Rams have always remained a part of the NFC West. With the sports-mogul Kroenke family (who also own the Denver Nuggets and Colorado Avalanche) as the new owners, and attendance at the bottom of the league despite good performance in the early 00s and a re-energized team behind the arm of 2011 Offensive Rookie of the Year Sam Bradford, it may be time for a team that spent most of the merged NFL's existence in the City of Angels to return.
Metrics:
  • Stadium: b.1995, 14th oldest NFL stadium.
  • Fans/Attendance: avg. 2009 attendance - 55,237 (29/32), 29/32 by stadium capacity %.
  • Franchise Performance: 3 League Championships, 6 Conference Championships, 15 Division Championships. Last playoff appearance - 2004.
5. Buffalo Bills - The Bills have not won a league championship since 1965, and are the only franchise to ever lose four consecutive Super Bowls. Four. I lost a lot of quarters as a kid betting on the Bills to finally pull it off, this year. Ralph Wilson Stadium, home of the Bills (except for the game they play in Toronto each year, leading to a significant Canadian following) was built in 1973, only 6 years younger than decrepit Qualcomm in San Diego and 9 years older than "'Unintentionally-Collapsible Roof" Metrodome in the Twin Cities. Bills fans are hardcore, showing up at high rates (95.9% in 2009) to an outdoor stadium known as the windiest NFL stadium in the country, and in spite of poor performance for the last decade.
Metrics:
  • Stadium: b.1973, it is the 7th oldest NFL stadium.
  • Fans/Attendance: avg. 2009 attendance - 70,128/game (10/32); 22/32 by stadium capacity %.
  • Franchise Performance: 2 League Championships, 4 Conference Championships, 10 Division Championships; last playoff appearance was 1999.
6. Minnesota Vikings - How is this on this list? They have stadium issues, like the Chargers (although there will be no snow storms covering San Diego's field), but it seems ridiculous that fans willing to trudge through devastating snow storms to watch games in Detroit and at the outdoor U of Minn. stadium are going to give up their beloved Vikings without a fight. Also like the Chargers, this is a high performance team that has been successful of late, with 7 playoff performances in the 90s and 4 in the 00s. Although, I imagine if the Vikings owner decides to flee to warmer climes, Vikings fans may be too distracted by "mini-burgers" and FQ to notice.
Metrics:
  • Stadium: b.1982, it is the 9th oldest NFL stadium, and the only one with a collapsible roof.
  • Fans/Attendance: avg. 2009 attendance - 63,775 (24/32); 10/32 by stadium capacity %.
  • Franchise Performance: 1 League Championship, 4 Conference Championships, 18 Division Championships, including their last playoff appearance in 2009.
Wildcard: New Orleans Saints - Prior to Hurricane Katrina, there was a lot of talk about the mediocre success of the Saints, and their name was bandied about as a possible future L.A. team. But after the almost-storybook 2006 season, and the franchise-best, Super Bowl champs 2009 season, it seems unlikely--and perhaps downright cruel--to take away NOLA's pride and joy.
Metrics:
  • Stadium: b.1975, 8th oldest in the NFL. Post-Katrina renovations completed summer 2011.
  • Fans/Attendance: avg. 2009 attendance - 560,840 (11/32), 19/32 by stadium capacity %.
  • Franchise Performance: 1 League Championship (2009), 6 Conference Championships, 15 Division Championships. Made the playoffs in 2010.
Prediction: Two L.A. teams, the L.A. Chargers and the L.A. Jaguars, with one actually in L.A. at AEG's Convention Center site, and the other in the City of Industry's "Los Angeles Football Stadium."

The Raiders have other options, like sharing a new Santa Clara stadium with the 49ers (whose Candlestick Park is the 3rd oldest NFL stadium, b.1960), or building their own in Oakland near the decaying Coliseum, so I suspect test balloons of moving south is more about negotiations and posturing than anything else. Santa Clara may be 40 miles south of Oakland (and SF, for that matter), but that's still a lot closer than the L.A. Convention Center, 400 miles south. The Vikings and Bills aren't going anywhere, with the sort of fan bases that they have. That leaves the Rams, but I imagine the Jaguars and the NFL are both more desperate to end the failed Jacksonville experiment than to give the Rams a second-shot at thriving in sunny SoCal.

Then again, it'll soon be 17 seasons without even one team, so, as always with L.A. and football, everything is speculation until the first kickoff.

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