Nearly 20 years ago, my folks took me to Timonium, MD to watch some horse races. There may have been a state fair or something at the same time. I watched nine races and learned one thing: jockeys win more races than horses.
Today, I laid some friendly wagers down with some folks - whoever picks the better horse gets a beer. This isn't overly complicated. I picked Super Saver once I saw the 43 year old Calvin Borel on his back. Calvin has now won 3 of the last 4 Kentucky Derbies. He also happened to handle the inside rail at Churchill Downs rather well today in an undercard race. That's the thing: jockeys race a bunch during the day to get a feel for the track and to make some dough, though not in that order.
Next year, if Borel is racing which he surely will, a few jockeys will take and hold the rail for the entire race, come rain or highwater. Why? This is Borel's main strategy - stay at pace but back, then ride the rail to victory. Why? Borel admits it's the shortest route.
Will Super Saver win the Preakness? Maybe. I'm not going to give odds because I'm not a dyed-in-the-wool fan. As for Belmont, if Icebox is there, watch out. That horse looked like it would have obliterated Super Saver on a longer track. Further, Icebox excels at longer races.
The next month plus should be quite nice. It's too bad the Santa Anita Handicap is no longer a big deal. If you're a sports fan, make March the time to begin watching horse racing each year since the Handicap involves horses 4 years and older... thus allowing for Triple Crown contenders to test their mettle - lest they are already put out to stud.
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